Notes on the past and future

During the last couple of months, in our reports we tried to stress out some of the current economic issues that are highly debated in the Croatian public. At the same time, we took a look at the first twenty years of multiparty democracy in Croatia. In this month's report, we are giving you an overview of the first two decades of democracy and market economy in Croatia, coupled with scenarios on possible developments and trends in the next twenty years. These scenarios should be understood as scholarly ideas about the future development of the Croatian state and society.

Looking in the rear-view mirror: The first twenty years (1989-2009)

It has been twenty years since the fall of the Berlin Wall. That is enough time to deal and reflect upon the recent past which still influences our daily lives. The transition past is relevant in the context of measuring of the disparity between the hopes of 1989 and the achievements twenty years later. Thus, we shall look at the course and epilog of the process of transition in Croatia.

The transition in Croatia can be traced through the process of liberalization after 1980, the process of counter-liberalization and the rise of Milošević and open democratization in 1989-1990. The actors of the transitional opening were members of the opposition, as well as reformists within the Communist Party. International circumstances (the Gorbachev factor) initiated a “transition from above“, while the erosion of the old regime, as well as the opposition initiated a “transition from below“ and the move towards a multiparty system. The founding elections marked an end of political monism. The new democratic constitution opened a new chapter in the history of state and society. The strengthening of statehood came into foreground, while the development of the civil society became secondary. In Croatia, we can observe a model of war-interrupted transition.

The epilog of transition and consolidation of democracy in Croatia (1989-2009) can be analyzed with the help of the socially constructed four social arenas. Indeed, what has been achieved?

The arena of economic society represents a clear case of transition failure. This arena is characterized by a legalized “robbery of the century“, neoliberal market fundamentalism, predatory capitalism, organized crime and corruption, war profiteering and deep links between the underground milieu and offical authorities. Parts of the nomenklatura or old characters in a new context of the new system, undertook an “economic crime“ against the future of the Croatian society. A mere 5% of the population can be seen as winners in the economic transition. The rest of the general populace can be seen as clear transition losers.

The arena of political society is partially consolidated. There is a multiparty system which is characterized by two dominant parties, regularly held elections which form part of the show and entertainment society and peaceful government changes. Due to their oligarchy syndrome, the political parties are incapable of producing a truly democratic political system. Their actions created distrust and political abstinence among citizens. The role of political parties is taken over by media actors which function as virtual political parties. A part of media enterprises was privatized according to the model of “legalized robbery of the century. In the meantime, Croatia has become a media colony of globalized media corporations.

The arena of (full) statehood is consolidated. However, full statehood is gradually being abandoned due to the concept of divided sovereignty and globalization of Croatian politics. Despite the globalization of politics, this arena is not put in question. Croatia is a part of globalized politics.

The arena of the rule of law is not consolidated. This is the weakest arena, calling for thorough construction. In the conflict between a bandit Croatia and a Croatia built upon the rule of law, the bandits have taken the lead. The first transition has produced a model of societal relations which are far away from fairness. The old nomenklatura has accepted the new rules of the game. Nowadays, it possesses the status of political, economic, police, intelligence service, academic and cultural elite and still controls the ideas, processes and social resources, just as it did in the Socialist Republic of Croatia. Therefore, not much has changed. It used to be a nomenklatura and nowadays it has become a pluralized nomenklatura or elite. These are old characters in a new context. The transition show goes on. We are speeding towards the future.

A spyglass, a compass and an information pillar: The second twenty years (2010-2030)

The second twenty years (2010-2030) are related to the future which will be determined by the deficiencies and achievements of the (first) transition. In his book Future Files, Richard Watson, warns about the dangerous game of predicting the future which is “never a straight, linear extrapolation of the present.“ I do not want to predict, I merely want to represent ideas of the consolidation of all social arenas, headed by the arena of the rule of law, progress, modernization and compatibility of the Croatian society with the globalized world on the level of values and technology. Thus, we are talking about ideas of a radical modernization of the society, i.e. all social arenas in the context of the second modernity.

A modernization of the society can be made possible through an increase in the number of highly educated population to a 35% mark, stronger funding of science and education, free schooling and higher education, the implementation and dissemination of new information and communication technologies in all aforementioned social arenas and a transition of the industrial society into an information society based on information, knowledge and ICT.

In the case of a victory of the concept/scenario of consolidation and modernization of the society, the future processes should move in such a direction. New ICT will have a major impact on the transformation of the economic, political, state and legal arenas. Under the influence of the new ICT, the arena of economic society will become transformed towards digital economy, while the arena of political society will evolve towards digital democracy and digital administration. Political parties will become more and more oriented towards the new media and election campaigns will become digitalized. The state will become part of the global EU system and the European information society.

The consolidation of all social arenas and modernization of the Croatian society are attainable without several preconditions, such as transition justice and rational dealing with the past. The idea of consolidation of all social arenas and modernization of the society is founded upon knowledge and technology, the rule of law, work and social ethics, peace, institutional continuity (in opposition to institutional ruptures of 1918, 1941, 1945 and 1989), the building of trust and self-reliance and self-confidence. In such a light, there is no room for a sense of inferiority towards the world. The future actions that will determine the course of development of the society can be described by both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.

Future scenarios

The first scenario predicts the remaining of a status quo. The power structure or the transition winners who represent the bandit Croatia, as well as representatives of foreign investors do not want to see changes in the social arenas. The bandit Croatia shows it resilience and resists the consolidation of the arena of the rule of law. As no major changes occur, a period of stagnation starts, while the journey towards Brussels slows down.

The second scenario expects a radicalization of the crisis. Under the influence of global economic recession and crisis, development slows down, reforms are postponed, while social conflicts become active and there is a strengthening of organized crime and the bandit Croatia. Such a scenario foresees mere survival or sustaining of the society until the crisis can be overcome.

The third scenario announces a consolidation and modernization of social arenas. This includes a consolidation of all social arenas and the acceptance of a development and social philosophy based upon knowledge and technology, the rule of law, work and social ethics, as well as ideas of progress, peace and institutional continuity and the inclusion of Croatia in contemporary global trends. This scenario builds on an idea of openness of Croatia towards the world.

The fourth scenario sees a possibility of counter-modernization. Such a scenario means the blocking of modernization of the society by conservative social groups and power structures out of their fear from losing of positions and privileges to the new actors of modernization of state and society. This scenario is rooted in the idea of isolation of Croatia and the dulling of social masses by popular culture, as envisaged in the notion of the Republic of Croatia as Republic of Zrće Beach. Here, we are talking about a scenario of regression.

Conclusion

Finally, we should give a short summary of the scenarios presented here. The scenarios of status quo, radicalization of the crisis as well as the counter-modernization scenario are pessimistic and interwoven, while the scenario of consolidation and modernization of Croatian society and state represents an optimistic outlook. The optimistic scenario of consolidation of all social arenas and of the modernization of the society can bring the society out of the crisis and enable a transition from Western Balkans towards the western balcony. This is an option and scenario I am supporting here. I did not engage in prediction of the future because it would be a foolish and dangerous game, yet I tried to stress out ideas, values and scenarios which could play their part in the future. The emphasis is on the conditional mode “could“. A possible victory of the optimistic scenarios gives us some hope that the next twenty years might be better than the first twenty years.

Professor Anđelko Milardović, PhD
Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies
Political Science Research Centre

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